"Total votes cast" (TVC) is the cumulative total number of votes received by all candidates in the election.
"Number of voters" (NV) is an estimate derived by dividing TVC by two - as there were two seats available and voters were voting for two of the available candidates on the ballot.
The % figure against Foat's votes received is the percentage of voters (NV) voting for Foat.
Foat: 5,268 (67.6%)
Next highest: 3,181
Total Votes Cast: 15,572
Number of Voters: 7,786
Foat: 3,853 (47.2%)
Next highest: 3,089
Total Votes Cast: 16,340
Number of Voters: 8,170
Foat: 6,478 (55.7%)
Next highest: 4,743
Total Votes cast: 23,249
Number of Voters: 11,624
Foat: 3,189* (30.3%)
Next highest: 4,973
Total Votes cast: 21,027
Number of Voters: 10,513
* Although in third place in terms of votes, Ginny Foat was appointed to the City Council in 2003 when Cllr. Ron Oden became Mayor, thereby creating a vacancy.
The data above suggests that:
1. Foat's support as a candidate for Council has been on average about 5,000 votes.
2. Of those who voted, the percentage that voted for her has grown over time.
Given that Mayor Pougnet won with roughly 7,000 votes (see an earlier blog post with Mayoral voting data) Foat is clearly a good bet to win and she very probably is the front runner in the race for Mayor. Had there not been a corruption scandal that could affect support for her she would certainly be expected to win.
Even if she is tainted by the investigation into corruption of City representatives, that investigation will not have concluded before the election and she is opposed by seven other candidates, one of whom is running as the only candidate endorsed by the Republican party and at least three including that candidate are running anti-corruption/anti-status quo messages. means that the opposition to Foat is split. As a result she may well win despite the scandal.
I'll run a few models to show this but it seems that if anyone other than Foat is to have a chance of becoming the next Mayor, he (they are all male) will:
a). have to attract support from constituencies which previously have not voted, and/or,
b). consolidate "anti-Foat/anti-status quo" support behind him.
It is not clear that any of the seven are doing either of those things yet.
(Revised and updated 10/01/15)